Most external threats emanate from an unsettled boundary dispute with China and ongoing cross-border jihadi terrorism in J&K-a sponsored terrorism, supported by ISI and Pakistan-based Islamist fundamentalist organizations like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad who, in turn, are inextricably linked with international jihadi groups like Taliban and Al Qaida.
Threat from Bangladesh
Threat from Bangladesh assumes serious dimensions since it became a base for northeast insurgent groups like ULFA and Naga factions. Of late, it has also been serving as a conduit for ISI sponsored infiltration of terrorists along India and Bangladesh’s porous border.
Rise of China
The rise of China, and its quest for primacy, first in Asia and then globally, and its hierarchical view of an international order centered on itself, epitomised by the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), pose a new set of questions and challenges to the established order and to Western supremacy. China now uses economic means, such as the BRI infrastructure programme, to pursue geopolitical outcomes. In effect, economics and politics are no longer separate in today’s world. Indeed, politics may now be driving economics.
Cross Border Terrorism
India’s real threats to national security today are internal, but with strong external linkages. Cross-border terrorism from Pakistan, and the corrosive effect that extremism and radicalism can have on a plural and diverse society like India’s, are today a major security concern.
Situation in West Asia
The situation in West Asia, which has deteriorated over the last decade, is further fuelling terrorist, extremist and radical religious forces in the subcontinent. The main danger to India’s security is the al-Qaeda and ISIS campaigns in the Indian subcontinent.
China-Pakistan Nuclear Nexus
The China-Pakistan nuclear nexus has come to stay and is a source of constant threat to Indian security. The real problem lies in the intention of a nuclear-capable nation, in that whether it seeks to use nuclear fuel in its reactors to produce clean environment-friendly nuclear energy for economic development or it has designs to reprocess spent fuel for use of nuclear weapons of mass destruction.
Jihadi Terrorism
The jihadi threat to India originates from six sources:
