The Doha Deal: Indian Dynamics

The USA signed a historic deal with Taliban on 29^th February, 2020, at Doha (Qatar) which is touted to be a step towards ending 18-years long war. India, being an active participant in Afghan peace process sees this development as unpleasant.

Specifics of the Deal

• Ceasefire: Negotiators agreed to a temporary reduction in violence and said that a lasting cease-fire among U.S., Taliban, and Afghan forces will be part of intra-Afghan negotiations.
• Withdrawal of Foreign Forces: U.S. troops to be reduced from the current 14,000 to 8,600 by June 15 (in 135 days) and withdrawal of all remaining U.S. and foreign forces by April 29, 2021 (in 14 months).
• Intra-Afghan Negotiations: The Taliban agreed to start talks with the Afghan government in March 2020. Throughout the negotiating process, the Taliban had resisted direct talks with the government, calling it an American puppet; but later changed its stance. The initiative will start with exchanging prisoners (5000 Taliban prisoners and 1000 Afghan security force prisoners).
• Counter-Terrorism Assurances: Taliban would not indulge in any terrorist activities. Also, Taliban gave assurance to not allow any Afghan territory be used for terrorist activities by Al-Qaeda and ISIS against USA and its allies. In-turn, USA would aid removal of Taliban from UNSC sanctions list by May 29.

The Doha Deal and India

Interest

• India, since the beginning of war has maintained that peace and interest of the residents of Afghanistan must be the top priority. India thus indulged in humanitarian initiative like – building library, dams; restoring war-torn buildings; constructing electrical transmission lines; building university; conducting vocational courses for youngsters and women, etc. In all, an approx. aid of about $ 2 billion dollars has already been committed to the cause.
• Apart from it, geo-strategic importance of Afghanistan, as it is a neighbor of India, cannot be ruled out. Any development in the country would impact India and hence India’s interest in the region is uncontested.

Stand

• India has consistently held that the legitimate government in Kabul must be the basic anchor of any peace plan. ‘Afghan led, Afghan owned, and Afghan controlled’ must be the basis of any peace resolution initiative.
• Legitimizing Taliban, which has been regarded as a terrorist outfit and have been involved in terror attacks on Indian interest in Afghanistan, was resisted by India.

Impact on India

Though India was invited to the signing of peace deal in Doha and it did send its representative, but for now, have adopted ‘wait and watch’ approach.

Issues for India with the Deal

• Violates India’s Stand: The Afghan government was not represented and India has resisted Taliban’s involvement in any peace process.
• Pakistan: Bringing Taliban in the peace process actually has legitimized its stake in Afghanistan. Taliban, backed by Pakistan sees India and its interest contradictory to its own.
• No Mention of India: There’s no mention of India’s role in the peace deal. The agreement mentions USA and its allies would not be harmed by Taliban or other terror outfits, it is not clear whether or not India is included as ally.
• Prisoner Swap: The prisoner swap clause in the agreement and USA aiding removal of Taliban from sanction list of UNSC would be detrimental for India as it hampers the case of grey-listing of Pakistan by FATF.
• Economic Interest: The economic and humanitarian work undertaken by India in Afghanistan would be vulnerable by this development (involvement of Taliban in the peace process).

Way Forward

• The Doha deal is not all bad as it intends to halt the ongoing massacre and may bring peace, but the above issues could not be ignored. No amount of sanctimony about “ending America’s longest war” should obscure the danger and immorality of this sort of exit. India and its interest which are in sync with the interest of commoners must be taken into consideration. Hence, an inclusive and well-discoursed agreement must be drafted.