Rise Of Pro-Isis Propaganda In South Asia & Its Implications For India

The Islamic State, also known as Daesh, emerged from the remnants of al Qaeda in Iraq in 2004. It remained an obscure group for several years because of increased presence of U.S. troops in Iraq in 2007 but it began to reemerge in 2011. Due to growing instability in Iraq and Syria, it was able to carry out large scale attacks and firmly establish its ranks. In 2014, the cities of Raqqa (Syria) and Mosul (Iraq), under the leadership of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi formed a proto state known as the “Caliphate” of the Islamic State.

• Today, the group no longer holds sweeping control over parts of Iraq and Syria, it lost more than 95% of its territory in 2017, but its ideology continues to survive and is supported by the emergence of “ISIS 2.0” and incidents of isolated “lone wolf attacks.”

ISIS in South Asia

The influence of IS in South Asia has been minimal but India, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan, have had the shadow of ISIS fall on their doors. The 2019 Easter Sunday attacks in Sri Lanka marked a critical juncture as it showed that extinguished territory of ISIS has not diminished its ideological reach, approach, or powers to influence terrorist activities far away from its base of establishment.

• Video evidence showed that the suicide bomber who conducted the attack pledged allegiance to the IS. There is no skepticism regarding the fact that IS propaganda is taking its roots in various South Asian nations.

Afghanistan

• With the withdrawal of US and allies from Afghanistan, political instability, and takeover of Taliban, it has become a potent site for the rise of IS propaganda. Afghanistan has seen the rise of Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) as a more lethal group, which is ideologically opposed to Taliban. It has more territorial presence in the ungoverned border regions between Pakistan and Afghanistan along the Durand Line.

Maldives

• Maldives has also become a hotspot for pro-Islamic State activities. The country has provided more recruits to the IS from South Asia than any other country. Upto 450 of its citizens is known to have joined ISIS.

Bangladesh

• In Bangladesh, the influence of ISIS has increased in recent times. The 2016 attack on a restaurant in Dhaka was inspired by IS like violence, and was primarily orchestrated by middle-class, educated Bangladeshi youth. ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack.

Pakistan

• There has been increasing presence of “IS Pakistan Province (ISPP)” which was involved in killings of Pakistani spy agents. A Pakistan-specific pro-IS online magazine in Urdu called ‘Yalghar’ has also surfaced.

Myanmar

• A local terrorist group such as Katiba al-Mahdi fi Bilad al-Arakan (KMBA) offered its allegiance to the new IS Chief in 2020. Its allegiance to IS has yet to be publicly accepted by the group’s leadership. Many other terrorist groups including Al-Shabaab, Taliban, Hamas, etc. also seeks to take advantage of the Rohingya crisis to provoke the Muslim population against Myanmar.

Implications for India

India’s location between Afghanistan & Pakistan and Bangladesh makes it a vulnerable target of the pro-ISIS propaganda.

• But, India has been an ‘anomaly.’ India has world’s third largest Muslim population but the number of ISIS cases been probed by investigative agencies remains very low at around 100-200. The number of Indians who managed to travel to either West Asia or Afghanistan on ISIS’ call between 2014 and 2016 was only around 10 to 15.
• The country faces threats by terror groups such as ‘Indian Mujahidin’, who according to intelligence reports have been are working with IS and its operatives.
• ISIS has used social media and internet to spread its propaganda and radicalize the alienated members of the minority communities. These methods can be used to destabilize Indian polity and create social disharmony.
• There have been instances of Bangladeshi and Indian pro-IS individual attempting to work together online to form a larger base of like-minded individuals to create an organised entity.
• The number of Indians who may have joined IS remains a grey area with lack of authentic data, which poses a challenge for the intelligence agencies.

India’s strength of its strong roots of liberalism, democracy and secularism has largely resulted in resisting pro-IS propaganda in the country. A well-operated online domestic intelligence network as well with intelligence sharing, joint operations can help in keeping a check on the IS activities online.

Social Integration, deradicalisation, counter radicalization and international cooperation will be necessary to prevent the spread of international terrorism.