Monsoon Variability and ENSO-IOD Patterns

The Indian Monsoon, the primary source of India's rainfall, is inherently variable, governed by complex global and regional oceanic-atmospheric teleconnections. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) patterns are the most significant modulators, directly influencing agricultural output, water security, and rural economy.

Events and Impact Mechanism

Events

Mechanism/Sea Surface Temperature (SST)

Effect on SW Monsoon (June-Sept)

Associated Data/Impact

El Niño (Warm Phase of ENSO)

Abnormally warm SST in the Eastern/Central Pacific (Weakens Walker Circulation).

Usually leads to a Deficient Monsoon (Drought/Drier conditions) in India.

Historically linked to major Indian droughts (e.g., 2002, 2009); negatively impacts Kharif crop yield.

La Niña (Cool Phase of ENSO)

Abnormally ....

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