India China Relations In Changing World Order

India-China relationship has expanded and become diversified in the past decade. Contemporary relations have been shaped by high level visits, deepening trade and economic relations, cultural exchanges, and people to people contacts.

• On the other hand, there has also been a growing distrust and rising hostilities between both the countries. Relations in the past five years have been characterized by the Doklam standoff, the Galwan clash that led to the killing of 20 Indian soldiers, subsequent clashes on the LAC, military buildup and India’s ban on Chinese mobile apps on the pretext of protecting its National Security, and top level military talks to deescalate tensions at the border.

Drivers of Relations in a Changing World

The relations are being shaped by India and China’s increased presence on the World stage. China is looking to expand its influence through the ambitious Belt and Road initiative. The changing relations are characterized by heightened state of competition and mistrust.

• The dynamics of the border dispute, India’s inclination towards US, the geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific region, China’s Belt and Road and a multipolar world will mould the India-China relations in the coming decade.
• Chinese projects to raise its economic and political clout in the world is perceived as stepping on India’s ambitions in the region, and India’s closeness to US and Japan is perceived by China as a threat to its future manoeuvres. Relations of both the countries will also be sculptured by the Asian world order.

Belt and Road Initiative

• BRI is a global infrastructure development strategy of China which seeks to invest in nearly 70 countries and international organizations. It is considered as a counter to US’ “Pivot to Asia” policy.
• India has opposed the BRI because the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) under BRI passes through PoK. Under the grand project, China’s engagement with India’s immediate neighbors also threatens to alter existing power dynamics in the region. Example: Port of Hambantota in Sri Lanka given on lease to China for ninety-nine years and Gwadar port in Pakistan, which will be connected by CPEC. It has also faced criticism for putting poor nations under crippling debt and for being too opaque.

Indo Pacific

• The Indo-Pacific region has been described in the US National Security Strategy as representing the most populous and economically dynamic part of the world and stretching from the west coast of India to the western shores of the United States.
• Keeping in mind the relevance of Indo Pacific, India has been connecting with the neighbours in the Indian Ocean and other major maritime powers of the world. As the Indo-Pacific becomes strategically more important as India is investing in resources and policies that seeks to expand India’s engagement in the region. India’s trade with economies in the Indo-Pacific has grown eight times since 2001. But India’s economic investments and regional integration initiatives are not sufficient to counter the growing Chinese influence. India’s volume of trade with ASEAN is nowhere close to China. China’s increasing linkages with most of the Indo-Pacific nations is attributed to the key position it holds in the regional value chains.

Influence of US-China Relations

• Growing US-China rivalry in the Indo Pacific will also require a change in India’s approach towards the two powers, especially when India is looking to deepen its engagements with USA. There is emergence of battle lines between USA and its allies on one side, and China and Russia on the other.
• India is not a part of any alliance, which is reflected in India’s multilateral engagements, such as Quad, RIC (Russia-India-China), the BRICS, and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.
• The US under its ‘Pivot to Asia’ policy views India as an ideal balancer to check the aggressive rise of China and has formulated the concept of Indo-Pacific to counter China in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean. The US has designated India as an integral part of the Indo Pacific by the formation of Quad grouping. India’s tilt towards US is also likely to enrage China which may be reflected in China’s aggressive actions on the border.

India-China Trade

• After the border clashes, India has made defensive deployments and lessen its economic dependence on China. Cancellation of public contracts, ban on Chinese apps, raising customs duties and walking out of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership negotiations points to the strategy of becoming self-reliance.
• India is still considerably dependent upon China for auto parts, pharmaceuticals, electronics, telecom, power, and fin-tech, etc. China accounted for about 12% of India’s imports in 2019 when total bilateral trade was $92.68 billion.

Border Disputes

• China has been claiming northeastern parts of the territory of India for a long time. In 2020, Indian and Chinese troops clashed at Pangong Tso in Ladakh. There has been an increase in Chinese construction activities in the border region in recent past. India is also constructing a strategic road through the Galwan Valley which is close to China. But China has tried to alter the boundary unilaterally which is a part of its 'nibble and negotiates policy'.
• The new border law of China is also a point of contention as the Chinese Army has been given the responsibility to protect its borders. Over the past few years, China has become more aggressive in its territorial claims over Indian Territory. China has indulged in various measures which have escalated border issues with India.
• Both India and China should recognize that a multi-polar Asia is one of its essential constituents of a multi polar world. The relationships between both should be reciprocal in nature. Peace and tranquility in border areas will also promote development of ties in other domains. Though there will be divergences and differences in both India and China’s interests but they should be deftly managed to improve ties.