India-Myanmar Relations: Impacts On India After The Military Coup

India-Myanmar relations are rooted in shared historical, ethnic, cultural and religious ties. India is a country of pilgrimage for the people of Myanmar as India is the land of Lord Buddha. The geographical proximity of the two countries has helped in developing and sustaining cordial relations and facilitating people to people contacts. Due to Myanmar’s geostrategic significance and the insurgency threats, disturbances in Myanmar assume great significance for India.

• The February 2021 military coup in Myanmar led by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing is the third in Myanmar’s history. The other two were in 1962 and in 1988 respectively. The military had also annulled parliamentary elections held in 1990 previously.
• The military or the Tatmadaw declared a one-year state of Emergency, established a new State Administrative Council (SAC) and placed the National League for Democracy (NLD) leadership - including State Counsellor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, President Win Myint and others, under detention.

Impact on India

Military coup in Myanmar can impact India in myriad ways:

• Threat to National Security: Myanmar is the only ASEAN country with which India shares a land border, extending to 1643 kms, most of which is not fenced. Myanmar borders four North East Indian States - Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, and Mizoram. India needs to coordination and cooperation of Myanmar to counter insurgency in India’s North East. Thus the military coup and resulting political instability can hamper national security and result in insurgency, extremist tendencies in the bordering states of India.
• Strengthening of Extremist Groups: The Arakan Army (AA) on the Myanmar side of the border continues to be a source of concern. It was the Myanmar army that was assisting the Indian Army in dealing with the Arakan Army and the National-Socialist Council of Nagaland Isak-Muivah (NSCN (IM) in the period before the coup.
• Delay in Implementation of Infrastructure Projects: Peace in Chin and Rakhine states of Myanmar is essential for the completion of the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project and the Trilateral Highway project. Political instability and violence in Myanmar would delay the completion of the projects and plans to further extend the trilateral highway to Vietnam.
  • The India-Myanmar-Thailand trilateral highway aims to provide connectivity from Moreh (Manipur) to Mae Sot (Tak province, Thailand) and the Kaladan project would link Mizoram to the Bay of Bengal.
  • It will hamper India’s ambition of opening the gate to ASEAN through the land.
• Influx of Refugees: The refugee influx from Myanmar to Manipur and Mizoram (due to common ethnic links and family ties) is a matter of concern for India.
  • Myanmar nationals belonging to the Chin community have entered Mizoram as refugees. The Chin community and Mizos share the same ancestry. Around 1,850 people from Myanmar entered the border districts of Champhai, Hnahthial and Lawngtlai in Mizoram in September 2021.
• Increasing Myanmar’s Dependence on China: The growing international isolation of Myanmar government led by the Army could once again push the country into dependence on China and weaken India-Myanmar relation.
  • The China–Myanmar Economic Corridor through Myanmar, which is a part of Belt and Road initiative of China has exacerbated India’s concerns regarding the influence of China in the region.
• Hinders Success of India’s Foreign Policy: Uncertain Political developments in Myanmar pose a serious policy challenge to India as Myanmar is an important element for the success of India’s ‘Neighbourhood First’, ‘Act East’, and ‘Indo-Pacific’ policies.

Possibilities and Prospects

• India and Myanmar have enjoyed cordial relations at the highest diplomatic, political and military levels in recent times. India still retains the credibility of most stakeholders in Myanmar and could help in the country’s transition to democracy. If a supportive international environment is built up through the UN and ASEAN, the military in Myanmar could be encouraged to return to the democratic road map.

Further, greater policy coordination between the central government and the Border States can help avoid possible alienation of the local communities. A calculated realistic approach weighing the evolving ground situation will help in realizing the objectives of India’s foreign policy.