Us Withdrawal From Afghanistan: Options For India

The announcement by US President that the US will withdraw all its troops from Afghanistan by September 11, 2021 caused turmoil in the region. The speedy withdrawal was accompanied by rapid advance of Taliban across the country. The establishment of a Taliban Rule has created a geopolitical flux and instability in the region.

Implications for India

India’s Investments

  • India has invested deeply in infrastructure, education, power generation and irrigation development projects in Afghanistan. It has offered large number of education scholarships to Afghan students in Indian universities. Many infrastructure projects like the building of the Shahtoot Dam near Kabul, may get delayed or scrapped.
  • But India should continue to invest in long term capacity building programs through multilateral organisations.

Bilateral Trade Relations

  • Afghan exports to India consist of fresh and dried fruits. At the same time Indian exports consist of pharmaceuticals, medical equipment, computers and accessories, cement and sugar. This trade occurs through government to government contracts with Indian companies and is tilted heavily in favor of India.

Peace & Security

  • The withdrawal of forces will lead to a surge in international and regional terrorism, re-emergence of Taliban-Pakistan nexus and a threat to regional peace and security.
  • India’s security concern is all about the re-emergence of Taliban which would strengthen the extremist elements in Jammu & Kashmir and other places of India through Lashkar-e-Toiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed.
  • India shares a border with Afghanistan hence, any sort of political instability in the region would affect India.

Options for India

Reaching out to the Taliban

  • The initial policy of India of not engaging with the Taliban proved costly when the insurgent group was in power. A visible policy shift was noticed when India has started backchannel communications with the Taliban in Afghanistan against the backdrop of the withdrawal of the US forces from Afghanistan.
  • India has acknowledged the fact that the Taliban would play a critical role in Afghanistan in the years ahead. Accordingly, India has three critical areas while dealing with the Taliban-
    1. Protecting India’s huge investments in Afghanistan;
    2. Preventing a future Taliban regime (especially Haqqani group) from being a puppet of Pakistan
    3. Making sure that the Pakistan-backed anti-India terrorist groups do not get support from the Taliban
  • In September 2021, India, for the first time, admitted to have held diplomatic talks with the Taliban

Reaching out to other Countries

  • India can make common cause with other countries and use its deep and effective ties with the US and Russia, strive for “double peace” both inside Afghanistan and in the region.
  • Taliban affects Iran’s interests as Taliban is involved in persecution of the Hazaras. However, Iran had hosted a Taliban delegation in Tehran indicating chances of dialogue with Taliban group.
  • China has huge stakes in Afghanistan so a civil war like situation in Afghanistan is not in Chinese interests. Also China is apprehensive of the radical Islamic influence developing in its own backyard.
  • India should broaden its engagements with Russia, China and Iran and find common ground with the US on Afghanistan’s future.

Using Multilateral Forums: Role of SCO

  • Multilateral Organizations such as Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) can be utilized effectively in dealing with the Afghan questions and achieve stability. Geography, membership and capabilities of SCO make it an important forum to address the challenges in Afghanistan.

India’s Recent Initiatives

Wheat Diplomacy

  • Although India has abstained from recognizing the Taliban Regime, but it is continuously providing humanitarian aid to the Afghan people by sending thousands of tonnes of wheat as nearly 23 million Afghans are facing extreme levels of hunger.
  • To position itself better, India could also send a Special Envoy with a small team to overlook the modalities and distribution of resources amongst the Afghan people in collaboration with World Food Program.

Supply of Medicines

  • India has also supplied over 5 lakh doses of COVID vaccines and 1.6 tonnes of medical assistance to Afghanistan via the World Health Organisation, while simultaneously cautioning the international community to deliberate on the consequences of legitimising the Taliban regime.

An interlinked set of mitigation strategies could help India protect its interests and mitigate the risks of terrorism, growing influence of Pakistani ISI’s on Taliban especially Haqqani group and India’s long term interests in Afghanistan. India has stressed the need for an open and truly inclusive government in Afghanistan and ensuring the rights of women, children and minority communities while emphasising a central role for the United Nations.

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