India-Russia Relations In A Changing World Order

Russia has long been a dependable partner of India. Relations with Russia are an important part of India's foreign policy. Indo-Russian ties in a world of shifting geopolitical equations, accelerated by the Covid-19 pandemic assume more importance. Growing rivalry between the US and China, the India-China border conflict, the Taliban control over Kabul, the continuous breakdown in ties between the West and Russia and the Ukrainian conflict impacts the bilateral relationship.

Significance of Russia for India

• Strategic and Defence Needs: Russia provides India with cutting-edge defence technology and sensitive military technologies. Russia dominates India's defence system, and the combined manufacturing of the AK-203 is the largest Make in India initiative to date, evoking the BrahMoS missile. Almost 70 per cent of equipment with India’s armed forces is of Russian origin.
• Economic Engagement: In addition to weaponry, hydrocarbons, nuclear energy, sectors of new economic engagement are projected to arise, such as mining, agro-industrial, and high technology, such as robots, nanotechnology, and biotechnology. India has also bought S400 defense system from Russia.
• Security: As a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, it wields significant influence over international peace and security concerns. The Indo-Soviet Treaty of 1971 provided India with long-term security guarantees.
• Political Support: The USSR's political support for India was proven by its six UNSC vetoes on Jammu and Kashmir in 1957 and 1962, on Indian troop withdrawal from Goa in 1961, and three times in December 1971 during the India-Pakistan conflict.
• Multi-polarity: As the world becomes more multipolar, India must retain deep and strategic partnerships with both Russia and the United States at the same time. Also Russia backs India's bid for permanent membership in a revamped UN Security Council and the Nuclear Suppliers Group.
• Fundamentalism and Terrorism: Both India and Russia have a long-term interest in keeping Central Asia safe from religious fundamentalism, organized crime, drug trafficking, and terrorism.

Key Pillars of India-Russia Relations

• Defence Needs: India is the world's second largest arms importer, accounting for nearly 10% of global defence trade. Russia remains India's largest arms.
• Commercial Trade: Bilateral trade was $11 billion, skewed in Russia's favour, with the country exporting products and services worth $7.24 billion. By the end of 2025, Russia and India have set a goal of $30 billion in bilateral trade.
• India's move to provide a $1 billion line of credit to enterprises looking to expand in Russia's Far East is likely to improve bilateral trade.
• Energy Ties: India's oil demand is expected to increase to 10 million barrels per day by 2030, up from 5.05 million barrels per day today. With a total investment of more than $30 billion in oil and gas projects, Russia has been India's most popular energy import destination. India's imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are expected to double by 2040.
• Arctic Cooperation: New chances for hydrocarbons and other possible resources lie beneath the ice of the Arctic, which have yet to be investigated. A partnership in the Arctic region could help India meet its energy needs. The Russian Arctic and Far East Russia would be important cornerstones of India's Indo-Pacific engagement with Russia.
• Afghanistan: Following the United States' exit from Afghanistan, Russia and India are concerned about the Taliban and the Haqqani Network, as well as the possibility of terrorism emanating from Afghanistan and affecting their nations. New Delhi and Moscow are united on the problem of terrorism and Afghanistan.

Challenges

• Since 2014, Russia's ties with the US-led West have deteriorated due to annexation of Ukraine, due to which Russia has moved closer to China, Turkey, Iran, and Pakistan.
• The strengthening strategic cooperation between India and the United States has alarmed Russia, which believes that India is progressively moving towards the Western camp. In addition, CATSAA and Iran sanctions stifle and harm Indo-Russian cooperation.
• Russia has criticized the Indo-Pacific and the 'Quad,' which are fast becoming a focal point of India's foreign strategy. Russia believes in Asia Pacific framework which emphasizes on ASEAN centrality not on Indo-Specific in which India plays the crucial role in containing China and Russia does not want to annoy China.
  • From India's perspective, China's rising influence creates numerous concerns in the region, whereas Russia sees China as a key ally in managing its conflict with the United States.
• The new geopolitical realities pose a "potential threat to the India-Russia relationship".
• Pakistan has received significant Chinese nuclear, missile, military, and economic assistance. China has shown no reluctance in transferring contemporary technologies that obtained from Russia.
• India is concerned about Russia's growing ties with Pakistan, which now includes military supplies, joint military drills and meeting of top leadership.

At present the relations are too narrowly focused on defense, energy, and nuclear cooperation, and they must expand beyond these areas. There is a need to strengthen links between people on both sides and broaden the economic cooperation foundation.