From Population Explosion to Population Stabilisation

In March 2026, National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) data confirmed India's transition to a sub-replacement fertility level, effectively diffusing the "Population Bomb" thesis.

Trends in Fertility and Replacement Levels

  • The National Family Health Survey-5 reported a national Total Fertility Rate of 2.0 in India.
  • India has officially fallen below the replacement level of 2.1 for the first time nationally.
  • Significant regional variations persist, with southern states like Kerala recording TFRs as low as 1.7.
  • India's population is projected to peak around 1.7 billion by the 2060s before stabilizing slowly.

Drivers and Socio-Economic Implications

  • Female education remains the primary driver, as women with twelve ....
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