Russia Emerges as Dominant Wheat Exporter

• 17 Jul 2023

In recent times, Russia has solidified its position as the leading wheat exporter globally, while Ukraine's exports are projected to decrease significantly, and production hits an 11-year low.

The key points are:

• Rise in Exports: The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates Russia's wheat exports at a record 45.5 million tonnes (mt) for the 2022-23 period, marking a significant increase from the previous three marketing years' figures: 33 mt, 39.1 mt, and 34.5 mt.
• Decline in EU Exports: The European Union, which exported 39.8 mt of wheat in 2019-20, experienced a decline in exports over the following three years, reaching 29.7 mt, 32 mt, and 34 mt, respectively.
• Markets for Wheat: The primary markets for Russian wheat are the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia, with Egypt, Iran, and Algeria being the leading importers.
• Ukraine's Market Focus: The focus has shifted from Asia and North Africa to Europe, primarily due to ease of shipment, as indicated by the USDA.
• Decrease in Prices: Abundant supplies from Russia have contributed to a softening of global wheat prices, leading to a decrease in export prices over the last three months from $275 to around $235 per tonne.
• Advantage to India: The relatively low international wheat prices can benefit countries like India, which may consider importing wheat if the kharif rice crop suffers from poor monsoon rainfall in major paddy-growing states.