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IEA Raises 2025 Oil Supply Growth Forecast

  • 16 Aug 2025

On 13th August 2025, the International Energy Agency (IEA) increased its forecast for global oil supply growth for 2025 while slightly lowering its demand forecast due to weak consumption trends in major economies.

  • The IEA now expects global oil supply to grow by 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, compared to its earlier projection of 2.1 million bpd.
  • The revision follows the OPEC+ decision to raise production levels, which contributed to the higher supply estimate.
  • Global oil demand is projected to increase by 680,000 bpd in 2025, a slight downgrade from the previous forecast of 700,000 bpd.
  • The agency cited lacklustre demand across major economies and continued low consumer confidence as reasons for the downward revision in demand.
  • Non-OPEC producers are expected to continue driving global oil supply growth both in 2025 and beyond, despite increased OPEC+ output.
  • Global oil refining runs are anticipated to reach near-record levels of 85.6 million bpd in August, according to the IEA’s assessment.