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India Likely to Reach $4,000 Per Capita Income by 2030: SBI

  • 19 Jan 2026

On 19th January 2026, according to a report by State Bank of India (SBI) Research, India is projected to achieve a per capita income of $4,000 by 2030, enabling its transition to an upper middle-income country, joining China and Indonesia.

Key Points

  • Upper Middle-Income Transition: India is expected to cross the $4,000 per capita income mark by 2030, nearing the upper middle-income threshold of around $4,500 per capita GNI.
  • GDP Growth Milestones:
    • $1 trillion economy reached after 60 years since Independence
    • $2 trillion in 2014
    • $3 trillion in 2021
    • $4 trillion in 2025
    • $5 trillion likely within the next two years
  • Global Growth Ranking: India’s percentile rank in cross-country average real GDP growth improved from the 92nd percentile to the 95th percentile, placing it deeper in the upper tail of global growth distribution.
  • Viksit Bharat@2047 Goal: To reach the current high-income threshold of $13,936 per capita GNI by 2047, India needs a per capita GNI growth of 7.5% CAGR, which is achievable given the historical CAGR of 8.3% (2001–2024).
  • Revised High-Income Scenario: If the threshold rises to $18,000, India would require a higher per capita GNI growth rate of about 8.9% CAGR over the next 23 years.
  • Nominal GDP Growth Requirement: Assuming population growth of 0.6% and a deflator of about 2%, India would need nominal GDP growth of approximately 11.5% in dollar terms.
  • Reform Imperative: The report stressed the importance of sustained structural reforms to achieve higher incremental growth and transition into the high-income category.