Moody's Predicts India's Economy to Grow 6.1%

• 13 Apr 2024

On 12th April 2024, Moody's Analytics forecasts India's GDP growth at 6.1% for 2024, down from 7.7% in 2023, citing uncertainties in inflation outlook and lingering pandemic effects.

Key Points

• Lower Growth Forecast: Moody's Analytics predicts India's economy to expand by 6.1% in 2024, down from 7.7% in 2023, amid lingering pandemic impacts.
• Output Losses: India and Southeast Asia still grapple with significant output losses compared to pre-pandemic levels, with GDP below projections by 4% and 6% respectively.
• Inflation Outlook: Moody's flags uncertainties in inflation outlook for India and China, with Indian CPI hovering around 5%, nearing the upper end of RBI's target range.
• March Inflation Data: India's retail inflation eases to a five-month low of 4.85% in March, driven by cooling food prices, as per official data.
• APAC Growth: Moody's Analytics notes APAC's robust economic performance, projecting a 3.8% growth in 2024, outpacing the world's 2.5% growth rate.
• Inflation Projection: Reserve Bank of India retains a 4.5% retail inflation projection for 2024-25, citing persistent food price uncertainties.
• Geopolitical Risks: RBI highlights geopolitical tensions as potential upsides risks to commodity prices and supply chains, affecting inflation trajectory.