The Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update

• 18 May 2023

On May 17, 2023, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released its Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, revealing concerning projections for the next few years.

Key findings of the report are:

• Average Temperature in 2022: The average global temperature in 2022 was 1.15°C higher than the 1850-1900 average, with La Niña temporarily offsetting the long-term warming trend.
• El Niño Forecast: La Niña conditions ended in March 2023, and an El Niño is expected to develop in the coming months, potentially leading to increased global temperatures in 2024.
• Projected Temperature Increase: The annual mean global near-surface temperature for each year between 2023 and 2027 is projected to be 1.1°C to 1.8°C higher than the 1850-1900 average, serving as a baseline before greenhouse gas emissions.
• Chance of Temperature Record: There is a 98% chance that at least one of the next five years will surpass the temperature record set in 2016, which experienced an exceptionally strong El Niño event.
• Probability of Higher Mean Temperature: The likelihood of the five-year mean temperature for 2023-2027 being higher than the previous five years is also 98%.
• Disproportionate Arctic Warming: Arctic warming is disproportionately high, with the temperature anomaly predicted to be over three times larger than the global mean anomaly when averaged over the next five northern hemisphere extended winters compared to the 1991-2020 average.
• Precipitation Patterns: Predicted precipitation patterns for the May to September average of 2023-2027 indicate increased rainfall in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, and northern Siberia, while reduced rainfall is expected in the Amazon region and parts of Australia compared to the 1991-2020 average.