ITF Transport Outlook 2023 report

• 25 May 2023

On May 24, 2023, the ITF Transport Outlook 2023 report was launched at the International Transport Forum (ITF) Summit in Leipzig, Germany.

Key Findings

• Decarbonization Potential: The transport sector has the potential to reduce its CO2 emissions by about 80% over the next 25 years compared to 2019 levels if decisive action is taken to decarbonize transportation.
• Paris Agreement Goals: Decarbonization of the transport sector can contribute to achieving the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement, particularly in limiting the global temperature increase to "well below" 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
• Policy Mix: A mix of policies is needed to promote sustainable choices in transportation. This includes investing in public transport infrastructure, supporting modes of transport with higher occupancy or load factors, and encouraging more compact cities.
• Infrastructure Investment: Decarbonization of transport can reduce the need for investment in core infrastructure, such as roads, railways, and ports, compared to a business-as-usual scenario. This could potentially save governments globally $4 trillion on road maintenance and investment.
• Cost-Competitive Technologies: Scaling up cost-competitive technologies and fuels is crucial to achieving significant emissions reductions in the transportation sector.
• This includes the adoption of technologies that enable people and goods to be transported with far fewer emissions.
• Lower Investment Requirements: Contrary to common belief, achieving ambitious decarbonization goals in transport is not necessarily more expensive.
• The report suggests that the total capital investment needs for core infrastructure in road, rail, airports, and ports would be 5% lower with ambitious decarbonization policies compared to business as usual.