India Set for Second Consecutive Year of Largest Carbon Emission Growth

• 07 Dec 2023

According to the recent annual study by the Global Carbon Project, India is poised to witness the most substantial increase in carbon dioxide emissions among major economies for the second consecutive year.

Key Points

• Alarming Projection: The study indicates an 8.2% rise in India's annual CO2 emissions for 2023, more than double the expected increase in China, which is projected to see a 4% growth.
• Global Impact: The report highlights a 50% chance of consistent breaches of the 1.5 degrees Celsius limit in the next seven years if current emission trends persist, emphasizing that daily or weekly breaches are already occurring.
• China-India Disparity: While India's percentage increase is higher, China's absolute emissions, accounting for 31% of global CO2 emissions, far exceed India's.
• India's growth is primarily driven by surging power demand, outpacing renewable capacity.
• Coal-Fired Impact: India's CO2 emissions are expected to be 233 million tonnes higher than the previous year, with 176 million tonnes attributed to coal-fired power plants.
• Global Record: The study forecasts global CO2 emissions reaching 36.8 billion tonnes, a new record, with an overall increase of 1.1% compared to the previous year.
• Fossil Fuel Impact: Emissions from all fossil fuels—oil, gas, and coal—are expected to rise, with oil registering the highest growth at 1.5%. Declines in emissions are predicted in 26 countries, covering approximately 28% of global emissions.
• Urgent Action Needed: The study warns that exceeding the carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius could occur in seven years if current emission levels persist, necessitating a massive scale-up of carbon dioxide removal after achieving global net-zero emissions.