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New Study on Probable Impacts of AMOC Collapse

  • 23 Jun 2025

In June 2025, a climate modelling study warned that a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could lead to severe winter cooling in northern Europe, even in a warming world.

  • AMOC is a major Atlantic current system that transports warm water from the tropics northward and returns cold water south, stabilising temperatures in Europe.

Key Points

  • Climate Threat: Melting of Greenland’s ice sheet is disrupting AMOC by reducing ocean salinity and density, weakening the sinking process crucial for its flow.
  • Modelling Approach: Researchers used the Community Earth System Model (CESM) with extreme freshwater input to simulate an AMOC collapse and long-term climate impacts.
  • Wider Impacts: Sea ice may expand to the shores of Britain and Scandinavia, intensifying the freeze and disrupting ecosystems and infrastructure.
  • Policy Relevance: The study underscores the importance of mitigating emissions and monitoring AMOC health to avoid irreversible climate tipping points.