WTO Projects Slower Global Trade Growth in 2026

On 19th March 2026, the World Trade Organization (WTO) projected a slowdown in global trade growth, citing geopolitical tensions in West Asia and rising energy prices as key risks to global commerce.

Key Points

Slowing Trade Growth: Global merchandise trade is expected to grow at 1.9% in 2026, down from 4.6% in 2025; it may further fall to 1.4% if the conflict escalates.
Impact of Middle East Conflict: Rising tensions involving Iran and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are increasing shipping costs, delaying transport, and pushing up energy prices.
Energy Price Shock: Sustained high oil and LNG prices could reduce global trade growth by 0.5 percentage points, especially affecting fuel-importing regions like Asia and Europe.
Fertiliser Supply Risk: A potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt one-third of global urea trade, impacting major agricultural economies like India, Brazil, and Thailand.
Services Trade Impact: Growth in services trade may decline from 4.8% to 4.1% due to disruptions in shipping and aviation sectors.
Role of AI Trade: In 2025, AI-related goods (like semiconductors) drove 42% of global trade growth, rising 21.9% to $4.18 trillion; however, future growth remains uncertain.
GDP vs Trade Growth: In 2026, global trade (2.7%) and GDP (2.8%) are expected to grow at nearly similar rates.
Regional Trends: Asia will lead with 3.3% import and 3.5% export growth; Africa follows, while North America remains largely stagnant at 0.3% import growth.
MFN Trade Share: Around 72% of global trade is conducted under Most-Favoured-Nation (MFN) rules, down from ~80% due to rising protectionism.