WMO Warns of Record Global Temperatures Through 2030

On 28th May 2026, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released the ‘Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update 2026-35’, warning that global temperatures are likely to remain at or near record levels during 2026–2030, with a high probability of temporarily exceeding the 1.5°C warming threshold.

Key Points

Temperature Outlook: Global mean temperatures during 2026–2030 are projected to be between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average.
1.5°C Threshold: There is a 91% probability that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
Record-Breaking Heat: The report estimates an 86% chance that one of the next five years will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record.
El Niño Influence: Scientists expect developing El Niño conditions during late 2026, increasing the likelihood of 2027 becoming a record-warm year.
Arctic Warming: Arctic temperature anomalies are projected to remain significantly higher than the global average, indicating accelerated polar warming.
Paris Agreement Context: Temporary exceedance of 1.5°C does not constitute a breach of the Paris Agreement, which is based on long-term average warming over about 20 years.
Climate Risks: Scientists warned that sustained warming beyond 1.5°C could intensify extreme weather events, ecosystem disruption, and climate-related risks while reducing adaptation options.