RBI Projects India’s Real GDP Growth at 6.5% for FY2025-26

On 28th May 2025, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) released its annual report for FY2024-25, projecting India’s real GDP growth at 6.5% for the financial year 2025-26, with the economic outlook described as “evenly balanced” amid ongoing global uncertainties.

Key Points

Strong Macro Fundamentals: India remains poised to be the fastest-growing major economy, supported by a resilient financial sector and sound macroeconomic fundamentals.
Global Headwinds: Despite geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, trade fragmentation, and climate-related uncertainties, India’s economy has demonstrated resilience.
Fiscal Health: The central government maintained fiscal consolidation, aided by buoyant tax revenues and prudent expenditure.
External Sector Stability: A robust services export sector and steady remittance inflows helped balance the merchandise trade deficit and maintain a sustainable current account
Sectoral Outlook:
- Agriculture: Expected to perform well, buoyed by an above-normal monsoon forecast and productivity-focused policies.
- Manufacturing: Growth supported by rising domestic demand, PLI scheme, and National Manufacturing Mission under the Make in India initiative.
- Services: Continues to show resilience, reflecting positive sentiment in consumer and business surveys.
- Positive Sentiment: Improving business and consumer confidence, highlighted by RBI’s forward-looking surveys, signals optimism across sectors.