Global Oil Demand to Peak by 2029: IEA

On 17th June 2025, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reaffirmed that global oil demand will peak by 2029, with China’s consumption peaking earlier in 2027, while U.S. consumption remains resilient due to lower fuel prices and slower EV adoption.

Key Points

Global Peak by 2029: Oil demand expected to reach 105.6 million barrels/day in 2029 before slightly declining by 2030.
Rising Supply: Production capacity forecast to hit 114.7 million bpd by 2030, signalling a well-supplied market barring major disruptions.
China’s Demand Peaks Early: China’s oil use will peak in 2027, driven by electric vehicle growth, high-speed rail, and natural gas trucks.
U.S. Demand Rebounds: Forecast revised upward by 1.1 million bpd for 2030 due to cheap gasoline and declining EV adoption—now expected to be just 20% of car sales by 2030.
Geopolitical Risk: Despite supply growth, the Israel-Iran conflict has reignited concerns over Middle East oil security.
OPEC vs IEA Views: IEA predicts a near-term peak in demand, while OPEC continues to project steady consumption growth beyond 2030.