AI-Powered Tool Achieves 70% Accuracy in Earthquake Forecasting One Week in Advance

• 17 Oct 2023

In a notable breakthrough, researchers have introduced an AI-driven tool with a 70 per cent accuracy rate for predicting earthquakes a week in advance. This milestone emerged from a seven-month trial conducted in China.

Key Points

• AI's Remarkable Predictive Accuracy: The AI tool demonstrated the ability to predict 14 earthquakes within a 200-mile radius of their anticipated locations during the trial.
• These forecasts closely matched the expected earthquake strength, exhibiting remarkable precision. However, the AI missed one earthquake and issued eight false alarms, as reported by scientists from The University of Texas (UT) at Austin.
• Applicability and Future Potential: While the applicability of this approach in other regions remains uncertain, researchers believe that in areas with robust seismic monitoring networks, such as California, Italy, Japan, Greece, Turkey, and Texas, the AI's success rate could be further improved, offering predictions accurate within a few tens of miles.
• Significant Milestone in Earthquake Forecasting: The research team considers this achievement a significant milestone in AI-driven earthquake forecasting, addressing what was previously considered an insurmountable challenge.
• Impact on Earthquake Preparedness: It has the potential to reduce economic and human losses and significantly enhance global earthquake preparedness.
• Future Goals and Project Leadership: The AI's performance in the trial, where it outperformed 600 other designs, was part of an international competition hosted in China.